Quantifying Plug-in Electric Vehicle Mileage

## Quantifying Plug-in Electric Vehicle Mileage

**.white[John Paul Helveston]**, George Washington University 
Eliese Ottinger, George Washington University 
Lujin Zhao, George Washington University

January 11, 2024

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### .center[.font90[Electrifying the passenger vehicle fleet is a critical climate goal]]

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# .center[Two Studies, One Dataset]

### Measuring Electric Vehicle **Mileage** in the United States

Lujin Zhao (Ph.D. Student) 
Eliese Ottinger (Undergraduate RA)

**Status**: Published in _Joule_

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### Measuring Electric Vehicle **Resale Value** in the United States

Laura Roberson (Ph.D. Student) 
Saurav Pantha (Former Graduate RA)

**Status**: Submitting soon

]

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### .center[**Data**: ~13M used vehicle listings from 60k dealerships (2016 - 2022)]

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## Going the Distance: Quantifying Electric Vehicle Mileage in the United States

Lujin Zhao (Ph.D. Student) 
Eliese Ottinger (Undergraduate RA) 
John Paul Helveston, Ph.D.

The George Washington University

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# .center[We really need to understand PEV usage]

### - PEV emissions reduction benefit **depends on vehicle usage** .font80[[Jenn (2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-0632-7)]

### - Modelers typically assume **BEV miles = CV miles**

### - Revenue from proposed mileage tax **depends on vehicle usage** .font80[[Metcalf et al. (2022)](https://doi.org/10.1086/722672); [Zhao and Mattauch (2022)](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102747); [Davis and Sallee (2020)](https://doi.org/10.1086/706793)]

### - PEV adoption depends on **how well PEVs substitute for CVs** .font80[[Xing et al. (2021)](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102432)]

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### .center[Conflicting prior results on BEV mileage]

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### .center[.blue[Conflicting prior results on BEV mileage]]

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### .center[.red[Inconsistent data quality in prior studies]]

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## BEVs are driven significantly less than other powertrains

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### Teslas driven more than non-Tesla BEVs (but not as much as CVs)

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## BEVs are driven significantly less than other powertrains

`\(mileage = \beta_0 + \beta_1age+\beta_2{age*powertrain}+\beta_3{age}*cents\_p\_mile+\epsilon_i\)`

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### .red[BEVs driven 4,500 miles less than CVs on average]

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### BEVs driven 4,500 miles less than CVs on average

### .red[Non-Tesla BEVs: -5,400 miles]

### .blue[Tesla: -2,800 miles]

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???

BEVs: ~7k mi/yr

All others: ~11k - 12k mi/yr

Far less variability in BEV mileage than CV mileage

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**Non-linear range effect**:

+10 mi range:

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**Non-linear range effect**:

+10 mi range:

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### .center[BEV mileage less sensitive to operating cost than CV mileage]

1 cent increase in operating cost:

BEV: -69 mi/yr 
CV: -136 mi/yr

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background-color: #fff

### .center[BEV mileage less sensitive to operating cost than CV mileage]

]

1 cent increase in operating cost:

BEV: -69 mi/yr 
CV: -136 mi/yr

]

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# Why low BEV mileage?

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# Why low BEV mileage?

### **Intra-household substitution?**

Maybe current adopters have multiple cars?

Perhaps, but NHTS data suggests **secondary cars are only driven 1,000 - 2,000 miles less per year**.

]

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# Why low BEV mileage?

### **Maybe newer models are driven more?**

Some (limited) evidence this may be the case

(MY 2019: only 10,484 listings, max age of 3.2 years old)

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# Why low BEV mileage?

### **Selection bias?**

Maybe current adopters just have lower driving needs?

No way for us to measure this, but it seems very plausible

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## Key takeaways

### - BEVs are driven significantly less than other powertrains: .red[Non-Tesla BEVs: -5,400 miles]; .blue[Tesla: -2,800 miles]

### - Far less variability in BEV mileage than CV mileage (BEVs only substituting for lower-mileage CV usage)

### - BEV mileage less sensitive to operating cost than CV mileage

### - Can't say **why** low BEV mileage, but still relevant for policy

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# Thanks!

### Slides:

### https://slides.jhelvy.com/2024-ev-policy-council-vmt/

@jhelvy@fediscience.org <svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 448 512" style="height:1em;width:0.88em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:white;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M433 179.11c0-97.2-63.71-125.7-63.71-125.7-62.52-28.7-228.56-28.4-290.48 0 0 0-63.72 28.5-63.72 125.7 0 115.7-6.6 259.4 105.63 289.1 40.51 10.7 75.32 13 103.33 11.4 50.81-2.8 79.32-18.1 79.32-18.1l-1.7-36.9s-36.31 11.4-77.12 10.1c-40.41-1.4-83-4.4-89.63-54a102.54 102.54 0 0 1-.9-13.9c85.63 20.9 158.65 9.1 178.75 6.7 56.12-6.7 105-41.3 111.23-72.9 9.8-49.8 9-121.5 9-121.5zm-75.12 125.2h-46.63v-114.2c0-49.7-64-51.6-64 6.9v62.5h-46.33V197c0-58.5-64-56.6-64-6.9v114.2H90.19c0-122.1-5.2-147.9 18.41-175 25.9-28.9 79.82-30.8 103.83 6.1l11.6 19.5 11.6-19.5c24.11-37.1 78.12-34.8 103.83-6.1 23.71 27.3 18.4 53 18.4 175z"/></svg> 
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