Exploring Disparities in Battery Electric Vehicle Affordability and Availability

John Paul Helveston, George Washington University
Zain Hoda, George Washington University
Daniel Fisher, George Washington University
Lujin Zhao, George Washington University

January 09, 2025

1 / 31

Addressing the “innovation-needs paradox”:The people most likely to benefit from a technology
are often the last ones to adopt it.2 / 31

Data: 44.8M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)
(2016 - 2021, inclusive)New Vehicles
 
    Type 
    CV 
    HEV 
    PHEV 
    BEV 
  


    Car 
    3,246,993 
    154,188 
    40,206 
    93,939 
  

    SUV 
    5,234,631 
    65,507 
    0 
    48,284 
  

Used Vehicles
 
    Type 
    CV 
    HEV 
    PHEV 
    BEV 
  


    Car 
    17,488,916 
    885,266 
    146,820 
    212,119 
  

    SUV 
    17,071,227 
    108,173 
    0 
    26,979 
  

3 / 31

Type	CV	HEV	PHEV	BEV
Car	3,246,993	154,188	40,206	93,939
SUV	5,234,631	65,507	0	48,284

Type	CV	HEV	PHEV	BEV
Car	17,488,916	885,266	146,820	212,119
SUV	17,071,227	108,173	0	26,979

How accessible are BEVs?4 / 31

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

1) How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?

2) How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?

4 / 31

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

1) How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?

2) How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?

Affordability

3) How affordable are BEVs?

4) How many people are eligible for the used PEV subsidy?

4 / 31

How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?5 / 31

~1 in 3 dealers carried a BEV in 2021 (nationally)

Up from
~1 in 10 in 2016

6 / 31

New BEV availability growing faster than Used

7 / 31

BEV inventories still low at most dealerships
Something of a "ZEV Effect" in new market
Used market more diffuse

8 / 31

How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?9 / 31

“Access burden”: additional travel time to see a BEV

Access burden:

Find closest CV and BEV dealerships from census tract centroid.
Compute road travel time* to each dealership: $t_{P E V}$ and $t_{C V}$
Compute “Burden” as difference in travel time: $b = t_{P E V} - t_{C V}$

*Road travel times obtained using
Open Street Road Map (OSRM)

10 / 31

BEV access burden has improved over time, but large gaps remain11 / 31

Nationally, BEV travel burden is declining, both in magnitude and variation.

12 / 31

Largest disparities in BEV travel burden is in rural areas, but this is rapidly improving

13 / 31

BEV travel burden still high for affordable BEVs in rural areas

14 / 31

How affordable are BEVs?15 / 31

Most BEV supply growth in higher-price segments
(and overall supply still quite low)

16 / 31

What is the median BEV (car) price premium over CVs?

For each census tract:

Obtain all BEV & CV car listings in a 2-hour isochrone.
Compute median prices for each: $p_{B E V}$ & $p_{C V}$
Compute median premium as difference: $p_{p r e m i u m} = p_{B E V} - p_{C V}$
Divide $p_{p r e m i u m}$ by median annual income of census tract

17 / 31

Median BEV price premium as % of annual household income:

New: 17.1%
Used: 13.6%

18 / 31

BEV premium much higher for DACs:

New: 28.5%
Used: 23.7%

19 / 31

How many people are eligible
for the used PEV subsidy?20 / 31

This is a hypothetical calculationUsed BEV subsidy was not available until 2024

21 / 31

This is a hypothetical calculation

Used BEV subsidy was not available until 2024

Some assumptions

We use all BEV listings from 2016 to 2021 (inclusive).
We filter for only BEVs 2 years of age (current policy)
For each census tract, we count the population as "eligible" if:
1. The median income is <= the income cap.
2. The median used BEV price is <= price cap.

21 / 31

22 / 31

23 / 31

24 / 31

25 / 31

26 / 31

Eligible population could increase from
1/3 to 2/3 if:

Increase price cap: $25k -> $35k
Increase income cap: $75k -> $100k

27 / 31

Thanks!

Slides:

https://slides.jhelvy.com/2025-ev-policy-council/

28 / 31

Extra slides29 / 31

Access burden is shrinking in magnitude and spatial variation

30 / 31

31 / 31

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Tile View: Overview of Slides

Exploring Disparities in Battery Electric Vehicle Affordability and Availability

John Paul Helveston, George Washington University
Zain Hoda, George Washington University
Daniel Fisher, George Washington University
Lujin Zhao, George Washington University

January 09, 2025

1 / 31

Addressing the “innovation-needs paradox”:The people most likely to benefit from a technology
are often the last ones to adopt it.2 / 31

Data: 44.8M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)
(2016 - 2021, inclusive)New Vehicles
 
    Type 
    CV 
    HEV 
    PHEV 
    BEV 
  


    Car 
    3,246,993 
    154,188 
    40,206 
    93,939 
  

    SUV 
    5,234,631 
    65,507 
    0 
    48,284 
  

Used Vehicles
 
    Type 
    CV 
    HEV 
    PHEV 
    BEV 
  


    Car 
    17,488,916 
    885,266 
    146,820 
    212,119 
  

    SUV 
    17,071,227 
    108,173 
    0 
    26,979 
  

3 / 31

Type	CV	HEV	PHEV	BEV
Car	3,246,993	154,188	40,206	93,939
SUV	5,234,631	65,507	0	48,284

Type	CV	HEV	PHEV	BEV
Car	17,488,916	885,266	146,820	212,119
SUV	17,071,227	108,173	0	26,979

How accessible are BEVs?4 / 31

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

1) How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?

2) How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?

4 / 31

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

1) How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?

2) How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?

Affordability

3) How affordable are BEVs?

4) How many people are eligible for the used PEV subsidy?

4 / 31

How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?5 / 31

~1 in 3 dealers carried a BEV in 2021 (nationally)

Up from
~1 in 10 in 2016

6 / 31

New BEV availability growing faster than Used

7 / 31

BEV inventories still low at most dealerships
Something of a "ZEV Effect" in new market
Used market more diffuse

8 / 31

How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?9 / 31

“Access burden”: additional travel time to see a BEV

Access burden:

Find closest CV and BEV dealerships from census tract centroid.
Compute road travel time* to each dealership: $t_{P E V}$ and $t_{C V}$
Compute “Burden” as difference in travel time: $b = t_{P E V} - t_{C V}$

*Road travel times obtained using
Open Street Road Map (OSRM)

10 / 31

BEV access burden has improved over time, but large gaps remain11 / 31

Nationally, BEV travel burden is declining, both in magnitude and variation.

12 / 31

Largest disparities in BEV travel burden is in rural areas, but this is rapidly improving

13 / 31

BEV travel burden still high for affordable BEVs in rural areas

14 / 31

How affordable are BEVs?15 / 31

Most BEV supply growth in higher-price segments
(and overall supply still quite low)

16 / 31

What is the median BEV (car) price premium over CVs?

For each census tract:

Obtain all BEV & CV car listings in a 2-hour isochrone.
Compute median prices for each: $p_{B E V}$ & $p_{C V}$
Compute median premium as difference: $p_{p r e m i u m} = p_{B E V} - p_{C V}$
Divide $p_{p r e m i u m}$ by median annual income of census tract

17 / 31

Median BEV price premium as % of annual household income:

New: 17.1%
Used: 13.6%

18 / 31

BEV premium much higher for DACs:

New: 28.5%
Used: 23.7%

19 / 31

How many people are eligible
for the used PEV subsidy?20 / 31

This is a hypothetical calculationUsed BEV subsidy was not available until 2024

21 / 31

This is a hypothetical calculation

Used BEV subsidy was not available until 2024

Some assumptions

We use all BEV listings from 2016 to 2021 (inclusive).
We filter for only BEVs 2 years of age (current policy)
For each census tract, we count the population as "eligible" if:
1. The median income is <= the income cap.
2. The median used BEV price is <= price cap.

21 / 31

22 / 31

23 / 31

24 / 31

25 / 31

26 / 31

Eligible population could increase from
1/3 to 2/3 if:

Increase price cap: $25k -> $35k
Increase income cap: $75k -> $100k

27 / 31

Thanks!

Slides:

https://slides.jhelvy.com/2025-ev-policy-council/

28 / 31

Extra slides29 / 31

Access burden is shrinking in magnitude and spatial variation

30 / 31

31 / 31

Exploring Disparities in Battery Electric Vehicle Affordability and Availability

Addressing the “innovation-needs paradox”:

The people most likely to benefit from a technologyare often the last ones to adopt it.

Data: 44.8M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)(2016 - 2021, inclusive)

New Vehicles

Used Vehicles

How accessible are BEVs?

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

Affordability

How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?

~1 in 3 dealers carried a BEV in 2021 (nationally)

Up from~1 in 10 in 2016

New BEV availability growing faster than Used

How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?

“Access burden”: additional travel time to see a BEV

Access burden:

BEV access burden has improved over time, but large gaps remain

Nationally, BEV travel burden is declining, both in magnitude and variation.

Largest disparities in BEV travel burden is in rural areas, but this is rapidly improving

BEV travel burden still high for affordable BEVs in rural areas

How affordable are BEVs?

Most BEV supply growth in higher-price segments(and overall supply still quite low)

What is the median BEV (car) price premium over CVs?

Median BEV price premium as % of annual household income:

BEV premium much higher for DACs:

How many people are eligiblefor the used PEV subsidy?

This is a hypothetical calculation

This is a hypothetical calculation

Some assumptions

Thanks!

Slides:

https://slides.jhelvy.com/2025-ev-policy-council/

Extra slides

Access burden is shrinking in magnitude and spatial variation

Addressing the “innovation-needs paradox”:

The people most likely to benefit from a technologyare often the last ones to adopt it.

Help

Exploring Disparities in Battery Electric Vehicle Affordability and Availability

Exploring Disparities in Battery Electric Vehicle Affordability and Availability

Addressing the “innovation-needs paradox”:

The people most likely to benefit from a technologyare often the last ones to adopt it.

Data: 44.8M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)(2016 - 2021, inclusive)

New Vehicles

Used Vehicles

How accessible are BEVs?

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

How accessible are BEVs?

Availability

Affordability

How many dealerships are carrying BEVs?

~1 in 3 dealers carried a BEV in 2021 (nationally)

Up from~1 in 10 in 2016

New BEV availability growing faster than Used

How hard is it to get to a BEV dealer?

“Access burden”: additional travel time to see a BEV

Access burden:

BEV access burden has improved over time, but large gaps remain

Nationally, BEV travel burden is declining, both in magnitude and variation.

Largest disparities in BEV travel burden is in rural areas, but this is rapidly improving

BEV travel burden still high for affordable BEVs in rural areas

How affordable are BEVs?

Most BEV supply growth in higher-price segments(and overall supply still quite low)

What is the median BEV (car) price premium over CVs?

Median BEV price premium as % of annual household income:

BEV premium much higher for DACs:

How many people are eligiblefor the used PEV subsidy?

This is a hypothetical calculation

This is a hypothetical calculation

Some assumptions

Thanks!

Slides:

https://slides.jhelvy.com/2025-ev-policy-council/

Extra slides

Access burden is shrinking in magnitude and spatial variation

The people most likely to benefit from a technology
are often the last ones to adopt it.

Data: 44.8M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)
(2016 - 2021, inclusive)

Up from
~1 in 10 in 2016

Most BEV supply growth in higher-price segments
(and overall supply still quite low)

How many people are eligible
for the used PEV subsidy?

The people most likely to benefit from a technology
are often the last ones to adopt it.

The people most likely to benefit from a technology
are often the last ones to adopt it.

Data: 44.8M vehicle listings from ~60k dealerships (marketcheck.com)
(2016 - 2021, inclusive)

Up from
~1 in 10 in 2016

Most BEV supply growth in higher-price segments
(and overall supply still quite low)

How many people are eligible
for the used PEV subsidy?